How it Works
Our proprietary secularity model uses a total of 9 distinct and yet standard sets of data in order to tilt the balance on our side. These 9 models are built on the back of well tested strategies and the use of AI (artificial intelligence) is equally used in order to walk forward the model and anticipate the next market move.
A typical bull/bear statement that reports on the secularity of the US market could well be delivered on a monthly basis, the Recession/Watch model is going one step further by concatenating the secular direction along with a tactical indicator that also adds intelligence as to what the near to mid term direction of the market is. A "pullbacK' signal for example will indicate that a retreat in the US index futures could be imminent, hence giving a chance to investors to decrease their drawdown by adjusting their long trading exposure ahead of time. We will never claim to be right each time, but again who is. Using statistical models combined with AI (artificial intelligence) can certainly put the odds in our favor however, more so than with any other system. Give it a try, a monthy pay-as-you go subscription is available and can be cancelled at any time with no questions asked.
Proprietary Model, Yet Industry Standard
Our proprietary secularity model indicates where the US market is in the bull/bear cyclicality curve with an aim in the best case scenario to be ahead of the next turn and have enough contingency in order for the investor to adjust his/her trading strategies. This model is used by managers as one of their core instruments or serves as complementarity to other measures. No one can predict the future and we are certainly not claiming it, yet we want the statistics to work for us and as a result the direction of the market to be on our side and that is what this model is built on.
The argument can be made that a typical bull/bear statement that reports on the secularity of the US market could well be generated and delivered on a MONTHLY basis. The Recession/Watch model is going one step further by concatenating the secular direction along with a tactical indicator that also adds intelligence as to what the near to mid term direction of the market is. Our reports are therefore delivered WEEKLY in an XLS format in a clear and easy to read format. Our reports do not hide any data and timeseries are fully disclosed in order to feel what history brought along with each of the models. One could always argue that past observations are by no means proof of future correlations, but what is ? Using statistical models combined with AI (artificial intelligence) can certainly put the odds in our favor however, more so than with any other methods.
U.S. Recession & Forecasting
A number of well-known models have predicted many more recessions than the actual number itself. The yield curve inversion model for example has predicted many more recessions, now that is quite a promise. What if this one model were to be combined however with a number of other meaningful models that combine fundamental and technical analysis ? Wouldn't that be more efficient, and reasonable to arrive to a more sensible estimate ? What if we even pushed it one step further and had a mid-term indicator combined with the secularity indicator so that you can prepare ahead of time, decrease your long exposure before your drawdown becomes unmanageable ? The Recession/Watch report combines both a secularity indicator (bull/bear) alogn with a tacticality indicator that estimates in the best case scenario possible what the mid-term direction of the market is (pullback, bullish, bearish). Now that is useful, isn't?
Recession\Watch's bull/bear report is an easy to read report. It combines a summary page that indicates the secularity of the US market along with its tactical direction. In the spirit of transparency 8 annexes are then computed and generated in order to show the performance and behavior of each of the underlying models used. The result is a data-rich yet simple weekly report that combines a total of 9 spreadsheets.
- A main summary page that includes both the secularity & tacticality directions
- Yield Curve Model - A famous predictor of US recession, this R\W modified model tries to identify turning points and false positives ahead of time
- Walk-Forward Model - An in-house built forward looking model that leverages the use of AI (Artificial Intelligence) and tries to identify turning points between bulls and bears
- Market BB Model - A proprietary indicator that helps confirm the bull/bear hypothesis once market secularity changes for the best or for the worst
- LEI Model - A custom-made indicator that leverages the leading economic indicators of the US economy (included but not limited to Manufacturing Activity, Inventory Levels, Retail Sales, Building Permits, Housing Market, Level of New Business Startups, Changes in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), etc)
- Unemployment Model - An adapted version to complement the LEI model, provides reliable bearish and bullish signals
- Credit Condition Model - Another proprietary model that brings transparency as to the credit risk exposure of the US economy, provides reliable bearish and bullish signals
- Moversion Model - An in-house built mid-term pullback signal model, when triggered provides a remarkable accuracy on any pullback observed in the US market with a horizon of 2 to 7 weeks
- Hurst-Modified Cyclical Model - Another modified mid-term pullback signal model, provides good accuracy on any forward looking pullback observed in the US market based on the theory of cyclicality
Weekly Delivery, with Daily Exception Management
The bull/bear report is delivered weekly on Friday right before the US market closing time (approx. 5 minutes prior to close)
The bull/bear report is also a tactical tool which means it is rebalanced daily and signals could therefore be triggered in the middle of the week
In this tactical case the system will ship the refreshed report at any one day during the trading week days, with the benefit of receiving the new tactical signal (ie. pullback for example) on time for the investor to adjust his/her long exposure
To the detriment of repeating ourselves, no one can predict the future. We still believe that our secularity model is among one of the real credible things one can statistically have at its disposal in order to understand where the US economic cycle is and as a result of that provide an indication as to how much long/short exposure one should have at any point in time. We believe in our system and we trust it will also find good value in your hands.
Give it a try, a monthy pay-as-you go subscription is available and can be cancelled at any time with no questions asked. Our annual subscription model on the other hand provides the best value for money and is the most popular among our subscribers.
$39/MonthPAY AS YOU GO
- Pay as you go
- Billed monthly (credit card)
$395/YearOUR MOST POPULAR PACKAGE
- Best deal, and most popular among our clients
- 15% discount from the standard monthly rate
- Cancel yearly upon renewal, no questions asked
- Cancel quarterly upon renewal, no questions asked
Market Turn, Cyclicality & Pullback Model along with Trading Signals (Long/Short)
Our daily market turns update provides actionable signals that can be used to trade the US market on both the long and short sides. We follow a systemic approach that allows for low risk, high probability setups in US indices. A secularity signal supports a longer term view driven by economic fundamentals and shows as to whether the market is in a bullish or bearish cycle, while the tacticality signal provides a much shorter view as to whether the market is currently trending, about to go sideways, or literally pulling back. This particular signal complements well with a trader/investor's library of strategies in that it provides support to the underlying risk and volatility regime the market is gearing into next.
The TRADING STRATEGY component of our daily updates provides tradable signals to go long and short (L/S) in the US market. The S&P500 is the leading index used to provide long entry/exit signals while the DJIA is the underlying one used to provide the same but on the short side hence allowing for simultenous long and short exposures and provides netting facilitation to the trader/investor. Markets are all but semi-predictable at best, our service aims at providing general guidance. Profits & losses belong to you and therefore the responsbility as such.
DOWNLOAD TRACK RECORD
* 53,000+ pips long & short sides on the US indices since inception
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* 86% win rate, 400+ trades (as of , running since 2002)
* See our up-to-date track record, updated daily in a CSV format
C#.NET API Available
A C#.NET source code library is available to use as part of your API architecture. Please contact us for further detail.