recession-watch.com • One signal: risk regime (no noise)

Know when recession risk is rising — before headlines catch up.

Powered by your Hedgtrade quant engine. Recession Watch is the publication layer: risk regimes, indicator panels, long-term strategies, equity curves, and email signals.

Transparent rules Email signals Equity curves CSV exports

Latest Signals

What just changed (from your publish feed).

Live
BUY SPX500/USD 2025-12-29 03:00 UTC · trend_follow · Conf 73.0%
BUY
REDUCE US10Y 2025-12-28 03:00 UTC · defensive_rotation · Conf 61.0%
REDUCE
HEDGE VIX 2025-12-27 03:00 UTC · crisis_alpha · Conf 52.0%
HEDGE
Open Signals Get Alerts

What’s Published

These pages are live and wired to mock datasets today.

Strategies

Live preview (equity curve) + top strategies.

Crisis Alpha (Hedge Overlay) ID: crisis_alpha · CAGR 9.0%
Daily
Defensive Rotation ID: defensive_rotation · CAGR 12.0%
Weekly
Trend Follow (Multi-Asset) ID: trend_follow · CAGR 18.0%
Daily

Signals

Live preview (confidence) + latest signals.

BUY SPX500/USD 2025-12-29 03:00 · trend_follow · Conf 73.0%
BUY
REDUCE US10Y 2025-12-28 03:00 · defensive_rotation · Conf 61.0%
REDUCE
HEDGE VIX 2025-12-27 03:00 · crisis_alpha · Conf 52.0%
HEDGE

Weekly Note (mock)

Weekly Summary Loaded from markdown. Replace with your quant narrative.
MD 

      



  







  

    

      
Signal Panel

      
Small set of indicators, consistent interpretation.

    


    

      

        

          
Yield Curve

          Neutral
        

        
Interpretation placeholder — wire to your Hedgtrade curve signal later.

        

          Curve signal
          Persistence filter
        

      


      

        

          
Labor Market

          Stable
        

        
Interpretation placeholder — wire to unemployment/claims inflections later.

        

          Claims
          Trend
        

      


      

        

          
Credit Stress

          Contained
        

        
Interpretation placeholder — wire to spreads/funding proxies later.

        

          Spreads
          Liquidity
        

      

    


    


    

      

        

          
Risk Score Trend (next)

          
This becomes your score history chart.

        

        

          

            Chart Placeholder
            Risk score (0–100) + regime bands + flip markers (wire from your dataset)
          

        

      


      

        

          
This Week’s Driver Notes

          
Short, decisive, rules-based.

        


        

              

                

                  Credit spreads widened modestly
                  Delta contribution to score
                

                +3
              

              

                

                  Yield curve still inverted
                  Delta contribution to score
                

                +2
              

              

                

                  Risk appetite cooled (equities breadth)
                  Delta contribution to score
                

                +1
              

        


        

          Next watch: if score crosses 65, regime flips to HIGH and Pro users receive an instant alert.
        

      

    

  






  

    

      
Historical Regime Flips

      
Build trust by showing past transitions.

    


    

      

        
Most Recent Flip (mock)

        

          

            Moderate → High
            Triggered by credit + labor deterioration.
          

          2024-XX-XX
        

        

          Show: trigger conditions + what happened next (drawdown / recovery).
        

      


      

        
Model Hit Rate (mock)

        

          

            Lead time
            Median weeks ahead of “headline” recession calls.
          

          ~X wks
        

        

          

            False positives
            Regime flips that reverted quickly.
          

          X%
        

      


      

        
What you’ll see here

        
    
          
  • Flip dates + trigger snapshot
    • 
          
  • Post-flip outcomes (3M/6M/12M)
    • 
          
  • Regime bands on the score chart
    • 
          
  • Simple, consistent “why” notes
    • 
        

      

    

  






  

    

      
Risk Playbook

      
Action checklist by regime (general guidance).

    


    

      

        

          
LOW

          LOW
        

        
    
          
  • Maintain baseline exposure
    • 
          
  • Rebalance on schedule
    • 
          
  • Track early-warning changes
    • 
        

      


      

        

          
MODERATE

          MODERATE
        

        
    
          
  • Tilt defensive quality
    • 
          
  • Reduce cyclical concentration
    • 
          
  • Pre-plan hedges & drawdown limits
    • 
        

      


      

        

          
HIGH

          HIGH
        

        
    
          
  • Prioritize capital preservation
    • 
          
  • Increase cash buffer / reduce risk
    • 
          
  • Use defined hedges (rules-based)
    • 
        

      

    

  






  

    

      
Pricing

      
Simple: free weekly update, paid instant alerts + depth.

    


    

      

        
Free

        
$0 / month

        
    
          
  • Weekly email update (score + regime)
    • 
          
  • Short “what changed” summary
    • 
          
  • Public dashboard view (limited)
    • 
        

        Subscribe Free
        
Best for: staying informed without noise.

      


      

        
Pro Alerts

        
$15 / month

        
    
          
  • Instant regime-change alerts (email)
    • 
          
  • Full indicator breakdown + scoring
    • 
          
  • Flip history + outcomes (3/6/12M)
    • 
          
  • Downloadable playbook PDF (templates)
    • 
        

        Go Pro
        
Best for: investors who want fast, decisive signals.

      

    

  





  

    

      

        

          
Method

          
Rules-based, transparent scoring.

        

        
    
          
  • Small indicator set (curve, labor, credit, risk appetite)
    • 
          
  • Persistence filters to reduce noise
    • 
          
  • Regime outputs: LOW / MODERATE / HIGH
    • 
        

      


      

        

          
FAQ

          
Set expectations.

        

        

          

            

              Is this financial advice?
              No. It’s informational/educational market research.
            

          

          

            

              Where does data come from?
              Your Hedgtrade engine exports publish-ready JSON/MD files.
            

          

          

            

              Does the site send emails?
              Yes — once you enable SMTP in appsettings (disabled by default).